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A aboriginal assay compares Gumbel curves (Fig. 2A) for both accessory (e.g. Distance Hazards accumulation Infrared Precipitation with Stations, CHIRPS) and acreage abstracts at the stations of Marienberg (North-West; 1323 m a.s.l), Pfelders (North; 1623 m a.s.l) and Weissbrunn (South-West; 2297 m a.s.l) (Fig. 1). The Gumbel curves appearance that the magnitudes of condensate contest in acreage abstracts are altered from one base to another. For instance, 10-year condensate is estimated at 91 mm with CHIRPS abstracts and 99 mm with ground-based abstracts in Pfelders admitting Weissbrunn base gives ethics of 85 mm and 95 mm, appropriately and in comparison, Marienberg shows the everyman ethics of 62 and 64 mm (with CHIRPS and ground-based data, respectively).

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Return aeon and trend of acute condensate events. (A) Allegory of acknowledgment periods of condensate magnitudes over accessory and acreage abstracts recorded at the altered stations. (B) Allegory of boilerplate continuance (in hour) trends (in hour) over 10-year periods for the altered stations.

While CHIRPS accessory abstracts for the aforementioned sites about belittle ground-based observations, because of their resolution, they hardly aggrandize low consequence contest registered at Pfelders and Weissbrunn and almanac the aforementioned trend in the Gumbel curves (Fig. 2A). Condensate contest with a 40 mm-threshold are recorded every 1–2 years for anniversary base admitting those of 60 mm are abstinent every 1.65 (1.7) years (Pfelders), 1.8 (2.3) years (Weissbrunn) and 6.8 (8.4) years (Marienberg), as recorded in acreage and accessory (parentheses) data. Because alone ground-based data, disparities amid stations are alike college for 70 mm condensate contest with a acknowledgment aeon of 2.5 to 2.8 years at Pfelders and Weissbrunn stations, appropriately while Marienberg exhibits a acknowledgment aeon of 17.8 years.

A added assay of the acreage abstracts considers 2290, 2897, and 1687 condensate contest articular for Pfelders (1921–2018), Marienberg (1924-2018), and Weissbrunn (1961–2018) stations, appropriately (Fig. 2B). The administering of the condensate contest is agnate for the three sites, with the accomplished cardinal of contest amid June and August. Because the absolute periods for the three stations, the boilerplate ethics for the continuance and the accumulative condensate of the contest are shorter/lower at Marienberg (124 h, 22.5 mm), boilerplate at Pfelders (133 h, 36.7 mm) and best at Weissbrunn (143 h, 35.8 mm). To investigate accessible changes in the administering of the condensate contest in the analysed period, the reconstructed condensate contest were aggregate in periods with altered lengths: 30-year, 20-year, 10-year, 5-year periods. The statistical acceptation of any trends has been adjourned application the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test34,35(Table 1). Because the anniversary cardinal of events, a hardly abbreviating trend (0.05 akin of significance) is begin for Pfelders and Weissbrunn ((-0.1) event/year) and no trend is begin for Marienberg. The boilerplate anniversary continuance of condensate contest acerb added (increasing trend with 0.001 akin of significance) at Pfelders ( 1.1 hours/year) and Weissbrunn ( 0.9 hours/year), while it remained abiding in Marienberg (slope of the beeline corruption ambit = 0.066). The boilerplate anniversary amount of accumulative condensate added at Weissbrunn (increasing trend of 0.5 mm/year with 0.001 akin of significance) and remained abiding at the added two sites. These variations are arresting in all banausic groupings; however, they are the clearest in the 5-year analysis.

These event-based condensate analyses were not agitated out for Corvara, Madritsch and Rein in Taufers stations, accustomed that they accept abbreviate time alternation (see Supplementary Material) additionally with some missing data.

The change of the Connected Precipitation Index over 12 months (SPI-12) and standardised agency of rain, temperature and snow over time is credible for the Weissbrunn base in Fig. 3 for both satellite-derived (CHIRPS) and ground-based observations. The ambit extracted at added stations (located in Fig. 1) are presented in the added material. Weissbrunn is credible actuality because it is the accomplished base with the longest time series. The added sites are not consistently agnate to the Weissbrunn station. For example, actual wet and acutely wet years are empiric in 2001, 2009 and 2014 years application SPI-12 at Marienberg and Weissbrunn (with a acceptable bout amid arena and re-analysed data; see Fig. 3A,B) but at Pfelders, alone the 1982 and 2001 years are acutely arresting on CHIRPS condensate estimates data. According to all datasets, the 2004-2008 aeon can be advised as dry admitting the aeon from 2012 to 2014 annal a ample cardinal of wet events. However, the CHIRPS accepted accustomed anniversary boilerplate condensate accepted beggarly (Rmean) shows low but connected ethics during the 2003-2006 aeon (Fig. 3C), which contrasts with arena abstracts that display an acutely dry Rmean in 2003, constant with the 2003 aridity in Europe. The minimum, mean, and boilerplate ethics of SPI-12 appearance a statistically cogent accretion trend (0.01 akin of significance, adjourned application the Mann-Kendall test) for all ethics in Weissbrunn, while no cogent trend is begin for Pfelders (Table 2).

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Comparison of accessory (A,C,E,G) and acreage (B,D,F,H) distance variables for Weissbrunn. Change from 1981 to 2018 of 12-month SPI (A,B); anniversary boilerplate condensate accepted beggarly (C,D); accepted beggarly anniversary boilerplate temperature (E,F); winter seasons snow canicule (Sdays) (G) and anniversary snow acme accepted beggarly (H).

ERA-5 beggarly (e.g. Fig. 3E), and acute circadian temperatures represent a abundant another for ecology anniversary and melancholia airheadedness and anomalies because they do not accept gaps in abstracts that characterise alone arena measurements. ERA-5 abstracts appearance absolute increases of beggarly and best temperatures over time, abnormally for bounce months (see Supplementary Material). Peaks of low anniversary agency were empiric in 1980, 1984 and 1987 (Marienberg and Weissbrunn), in 1995-1997 and afresh in 2009-2010 (Pfelders), but anniversary accepted Tmeans are all absolute back 2011 (Fig. 3E). The beggarly anniversary temperatures, aggregate from both ERA-5 and arena data, appearance accretion trends for all stations (Table 3). Most of the trends are characterized by aerial levels of statistical acceptation according to the Mann-Kendall test.

Due to the all-encompassing billow advantage no amount the division considered, MODIS accessory abstracts are difficult to use for ecology spatial airheadedness over time, alike because departure in the Cryoland articles amid snow avalanche (see distance abstracts in Supplementary Material). Moreover, the abstracts are alone accessible for a bound aeon (>2001) which hampers banausic assay of snow awning atom (FSC) (Fig. 3G). Nevertheless while the anniversary snow acme accepted beggarly (Smean) does not appearance any credible abbreviating trend (see added material), over this period, at the Pfelders station, the cardinal of winter division snow canicule (Sdays) accept diminished, abnormally the aftermost 4 years.

The two accessible inventories for NH events, namely Inventario dei Fenomeni Franosi in Italia (IFFI) and EreignisDokumentation 30 (ED30), were alloyed and advised spatio-temporally with contempo acreage apparent processes detected with multi-temporal InSAR assay (MTA) to investigate their complementarity. Figure 4 – generated based on IFFI and ED30 – shows the spatial administering of assorted hazard types over South Tyrol and it is bright that the distributions of anniversary NH blazon are actual different. Specifically, bedrock abatement is added present in the southern allotment while a aerial body of landslides can be articular in the eastern and arctic allotment of the province. Bits flows are mainly empiric in the North and the West. In addition, although not necessarily a hazard, bedrock glaciers appearance a aerial body in the western allotment of South Tyrol (information on the spatial administering of bedrock glaciers was extracted from the account created by Bollmann et al.36). Locations of the assorted contest were analysed according to acclivity (see Fig. 5). This shows that contest recorded in the databases are mostly amid at lower altitudes (i.e. up to 1800 m a.s.l. about 80% of the annal in the aeon 2017–2018 appear from IFFI or ED30), while at college altitudes, observations (excluding South and North adverse slopes with angles aloft 40 degrees) fabricated with MTA are prevalent.

Density maps (heatmaps) of assorted abruptness alternation processes over the South Tyrol province. Coloured areas represent the sites with college body of abruptness alternation processes in anniversary class (black dots). Maps realised with QGIS Geographic Advice System, Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project (http://qgis.osgeo.org). Accomplishments agenda acclivity archetypal downloaded from the WebGIS account of the South Tyrolean accessible administering (http://geokatalog.buergernetz.bz.it/geokatalog/). Abstracts accessible beneath the Open Database Licence (© OpenStreetMap contributors); cartography accountant as CC BY-SA (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright/en). The dotted band box shows the SAR (ascending and bottomward passes) mapping admeasurement analysed in Fig. 6.

Distribution of contest over the distance and about frequencies of recordings from IFFI and ED30 catalogues and MTA for the years 2017-2018.

In SAR ascendance mode, the MTA maps 325 alive areas (hotspots) during the aeon 2017–2018 (Fig. 6) while 224 areas were mapped for the aeon 2016–2017. According to the IFFI database, 220 accumulation movements were recorded during the aeon 2014–2018 for the aforementioned area, with 47, 20 and alone 8 contest in 2016, 2017 and 2018 respectively. In bottomward mode, 218 hotspots areas were mapped during the aeon 2017–2018 including 54 areas partially overlapping the ascendance account according to the cartography and the altered SAR geometries. However, not abundant images were accessible to complete the bottomward MTA auspiciously for the aeon 2016–2017.

Deformation maps (A,C) and alive hotspot areas (B,D) mapped from Sentinel-1 images candy with the FASTVEL MTA algorithm accessible in the Geohazard Exploitation Platform (GEP) compared to bedrock glaciers and accustomed hazard contest recorded. Maps realised with QGIS Geographic Advice System, Open Source Geospatial Foundation Project (http://qgis.osgeo.org). Accomplishments agenda acclivity archetypal downloaded from the WebGIS account of the South Tyrolean accessible administering (http://geokatalog.buergernetz.bz.it/geokatalog/). Abstracts accessible beneath the Open Database Licence (© OpenStreetMap contributors); cartography accountant as CC BY-SA (https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright/en).

Considering both tracks, added hotspot areas (i.e. areas affective of added than 2 cm per year) were empiric with MTA than in the IFFI database which agency that this archive absolutely shows a abridgement of advice on apathetic affective processes. In the 325 annal during the 2017–2018 aeon (in ascendance mode), alone 5 contest may accord to IFFI events, possibly 6 to some from the ED30 and 60 to some (active) bedrock glaciers. In addition, amid 65 and 87 bedrock glaciers accept been mapped for the 2016–2017 and 2017-2018 periods, appropriately (from the assorted periods in ascendance MTA) amid the 240 alive bedrock glaciers that are present in the account created by Bollmann et al.36 for the absolute South Tyrol. We beam added contest at college elevations and a stronger accord of the MTA after-effects with (potentially dangerous) alive bedrock glaciers37 (Fig. 6).

  Figure 7 shows the banausic change of altered accident types registered in eastern and western South Tyrol amid 1998 and 2018 in both accident catalogues advised calm with the cardinal of canicule in which 30 mm of condensate was exceeded at the advised meteorological stations. In agreement of spatial occurrence, the eastern allotment of South Tyrol (i.e. the catchments of Eisack/Talfer and Rienz, see Fig. 1) appearance a college cardinal of contest than the western allotment (Etsch-Passer catchments). It can be apparent that the all-embracing accident of the analysed phenomena is about college both in the East and the West in summer (June-July-August) and autumn (September-October-November) compared to winter (December-January-February) and bounce (March-April-May). A absolute of 1,724 and 1,082 contest were counted in summer and autumn compared with 707 and 736 entries in winter and spring, respectively. Abnormally the eastern allotment of South Tyrol appears to be decumbent to accumulation movements – mainly bits flows and landslides – during the summer season. For instance, during the summer months back the alpha of recording, 833 bits breeze and barrage contest were counted in the east, but alone 408 in the west. In winter and bounce in contrast, bits flows are about absent. Although the melancholia trend of barrage accident is beneath distinct, summer and autumn appearance college occurrences than winter and spring.

Relationship amid melancholia accustomed hazards accident and rainfall.

Concerning the anniversary change of hazard contest back 1930 (see about amount in the Supplementary Material), the access in the cardinal of recorded contest from 1998 is mainly attributable to the acceleration in the advice availability. However, no cogent trend (according to the Mann-Kendall test) was begin from 1998 to 2018 for any hazard type, in either the western or in the eastern allotment of South Tyrol. While an accretion trend ( 1.2 event/year) in bits breeze accident can be observed, it is associated to a almost low (0.1) akin of significance. The year with the accomplished absolute cardinal of counted contest is 2008. The years with an awfully aerial accident of bits flows are broadcast appropriately over the advised time alternation (i.e. in 2003, 2009, 2012 and 2017, 90 or added contest were recorded). The years with the accomplished recordings of landslides are 2000 (173 events), 2008 (153 events), 2012 (135 events) and 2014 (102 events). However, as with the melancholia assessment, no anniversary trend was empiric for rockfall events.

  Figure 8 indicates added (red), accustomed (green) and beneath (blue) alive years in agreement of accurate NH accident and changes in altered distance variables (or not) over time adapted for their the affected banausic average. College accident of NH was empiric in 2000, 2008, 2012 (with added prevalence in the eastern region) and 2018 (with added affirmation in the western region). While the abounding time alternation (since 1980) are advised in the adding of the anniversary beggarly and accepted deviation, Fig. 8 focuses on the subset of the annal amid 1998 (since the recording of contest is done in a connected manner) and 2018. This assay demonstrates the accord amid aberrant anniversary and melancholia meteorology (recorded in some distance variables) with peaks of NH occurrence, abnormally for the western region. The eastern ancillary is not bright because of alternate gaps in data. Generally, during alive years, precipitation anomalies are mostly observed. However, melancholia peaks of condensate are not consistently activated to college hazard accident at sub-regional calibration (e.g. while autumn 2010 was decidedly wet at Weissbrunn it is advised as accustomed in agreement of NH occurrence).

Comparison of alteration distance variables at Weissbrunn (Western South Tyrol) and Corvara (Eastern South Tyrol) stations in affiliation to the accident of accustomed hazard types (according to the IFFI and ED30 catalogues). Red represents ethics decidedly aloft the affected mean, dejected shows ethics decidedly beneath the affected boilerplate amount while blooming shows ethics abutting to the beggarly (i.e. amid the mean-(sigma ) and the beggarly (sigma )). Chicken and absolute signs indicates alive ( ), actual alive ( ) and acutely alive ( ) years. The cardinal of distance variables agnate to actual and acutely alive years are accent in chicken on a atramentous background.

For temperature, some accord amid aerial NH accident and acclimate anomalies are empiric during years with temperatures decidedly aloft the accepted beggarly value. These aerial temperature years are added frequently empiric in the aftermost 15 years. Figure 3 represents the beneath and aloft beggarly ethics for anniversary distance constant (both acreage and satellite-based) empiric at Weissbrunn, which is compared with the (sub-)regional annal of abruptness alternation types in Fig. 8. While agnate acreage and satellite-based abstracts do not consistently bout in agreement of assurance (i.e. beneath or aloft beggarly values; Fig. 8), some agnate patterns are empiric back a college cardinal of NH contest was recorded by the authorities (see absolute symbols). Indeed, during the alive NH years 2000, 2002, 2012 and 2018, amid 4 to 10 variables with decidedly absolute ethics (above beggarly (sigma ) value) were observed. However, this is not consistently the case, for archetype a low cardinal of annal of aerial distance anomalies (especially from condensate and temperature) was empiric in 2008 back 377 NH contest were recorded beyond the accomplished South Tyrol province.

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