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Some landed bags of afar away. By the average of January, one had popped up in Chicago, addition one abreast Phoenix. Two others came bottomward in the Los Angeles area. Thanks to a little luck and a lot of containment, those flashes of the virus arise to accept been snuffed out afore they had a adventitious to booty hold.
But on Jan. 15, at the all-embracing airport south of Seattle, a 35-year-old man alternate from a appointment to his ancestors in the Wuhan region. He affective his baggage and appointed a ride-share to his home arctic of the city.
The abutting day, as he went aback to his tech job east of Seattle, he acquainted the aboriginal signs of a ahem — not a bad one, not abundant to accelerate him home. He abounding a accumulation cafeteria with colleagues that anniversary at a seafood restaurant abreast his office. As his affection got worse, he went grocery arcade abreast his home.
Days later, afterwards the man became the aboriginal actuality in the United States to analysis absolute for the coronavirus, teams from federal, accompaniment and bounded agencies descended to accommodate the case. Sixty-eight bodies — the ride-share disciplinarian at the airport, the lunchmates at the seafood restaurant, the added patients at the dispensary breadth the man was aboriginal apparent — were monitored for weeks. To everyone’s relief, none anytime activated absolute for the virus.
As it angry out, the abiogenetic architecture block of the virus detected in the man who had been to Wuhan would become a acute clue for scientists who were aggravating to accept how the antibody acquired its first, acute foothold.
Working out of laboratories forth Seattle’s Lake Union, advisers from the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Centermost rushed to analyze the RNA arrangement of the cases from Washington Accompaniment and about the country, comparing them with abstracts advancing in from about the world.
Using avant-garde technology that allows them to rapidly analyze the tiny mutations that the virus makes in its baneful aisle through animal hosts, the scientists alive in Washington and several added states fabricated two annoying discoveries.
The aboriginal was that the virus brought in by the man from Wuhan — or perhaps, as new abstracts has suggested, by addition abroad who accustomed accustomed a about identical ache — had managed to achieve into the citizenry undetected.
Then they began to apprehend how far it had spread. A baby beginning that had accustomed itself about arctic of Seattle, they accomplished as they added new cases to their database, was now amenable for all accepted cases of association manual they advised in Washington Accompaniment in the ages of February.
And it had jumped.
A genetically agnate adaptation of the virus — anon affiliated to that aboriginal case in Washington — was articular above 14 added states, as far abroad as Connecticut and Maryland. It acclimatized in added genitalia of the world, in Australia, Mexico, Iceland, Canada, the United Kingdom and Uruguay. It landed in the Pacific, on the Grand Princess cruise ship.
With no boundless testing available, the high-tech detective assignment of the advisers in Seattle and their ally abroad would accessible the aboriginal bright window into how and breadth the virus was overextension — and how difficult it would be to contain.
Even as the aisle of the Washington Accompaniment adaptation of the virus was coursing eastward, new blaze from added strains were landing in New York, in the Midwest and in the South. And again they all began to intermingle.
The advisers in Seattle included some of the world’s best acclaimed experts on genomic sequencing, the action of allegory the belletrist of a virus’s abiogenetic cipher to clue its mutations. Afore the outbreak, one of the labs had done added sequencing of animal coronaviruses than anywhere abroad in the apple — 58 of them.
When a virus takes authority in a person, it can carbon billions of times, some of those with tiny mutations, anniversary new adaptation aggressive for supremacy. Over the amount of a month, scientists accept learned, the adaptation of the atypical coronavirus affective through a association will adapt about alert — anniversary one a one-letter change in an RNA fiber of 29,903 nucleotides.
The alterations accommodate anniversary new anatomy of the virus with a baby but characteristic aberration to its predecessor, like a compound anesthetized bottomward through a family. The mutations are so small, however, that it is absurd that one adaptation of the virus would affect patients abnormally than addition one.
“What we’re about accomplishing is account these baby bits of viral actual and aggravating to jigsaw addle the genome together,” said Pavitra Roychoudhury, a researcher for the two institutions alive on the sequencing in Seattle.
They accepted he had brought a ache of the virus that was already extending ample tentacles — from the Wuhan breadth to Guangdong on China’s Pacific bank to Yunnan in the aerial west. Forth the way, its signature assorted decidedly from the adaptation of the virus that advance in Europe and elsewhere: Its mutations were at positions 8,782, 18,060 and 28,144 on the RNA strand.
That gave Dr. Roychoudhury and the scientists about the country she has been alive with the altered adeptness to see what the acquaintance tracers in Seattle had been clumsy to: the airy aisle of the antibody as it moved.
On the coursing for the virus’s aisle through the United States, one of the aboriginal signposts came on Feb. 24, aback a jailbait came into a dispensary with what looked like the flu. The dispensary was in Snohomish County, breadth the man who had catholic to China lived. Doctors gave the jailbait a nasal besom as allotment of a tracking abstraction that was already actuality done on affliction in the region.
Only afterwards did they apprentice that the jailbait had not had the flu, but the coronavirus. Afterwards the diagnosis, advisers in Seattle ran the sample through a sequencing machine. Trevor Bedford, a scientist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Institute who studies the advance and change of viruses, said he and a aide sipped on beers as they waited for the after-effects to appear on a laptop.
Additional sequencing in the canicule afterwards helped affirm that added cases arising were all allotment of the aforementioned group. This could alone beggarly one thing: The virus had not been independent to the adventurer from Wuhan and had been overextension for weeks. Either he had somehow advance it to others, or addition abroad had brought in a genetically identical adaptation of the virus.
That closing achievability has become added acceptable in contempo days, afterwards new cases entered into the researchers’ database showed an absorbing pattern. A virus with a fingerprint about identical to the Wuhan traveler’s had apparent up in cases in British Columbia, aloof above the bound from Washington State, suggesting to Dr. Bedford that it ability not accept been the aboriginal Wuhan adventurer who had unleashed the outbreak.
It was a abounding ages aback the Wuhan traveler’s arrival. A brace dozen aboveboard dancers had aggregate for a pie and ice chrism social, capping off a alternation of practices and contest from all over the arena over the advance of a three-day weekend.
Three groups of aboveboard dancers swung through promenades and allemandes — huffing and afraid to “Free Ride” and “Bad Case of Loving You.”
Another dancer, Suzanne Jones, had abounding a chic with Mr. Cole the day before. By the abutting weekend, Ms. Jones said, she started to feel affection she absolved as allergies, aback she had noticed the scotch besom starting to bloom.
After comatose for a brace of days, Ms. Jones acquainted bigger and collection from her home in Skagit County added than 100 afar south to appointment her mother in Enumclaw, allowance backpack some accouterments for storage. On the way back, she visited the band malls in Renton, again a abundance in Everett, again a beard in Arlington. She chock-full to administer for a job with the Census Bureau.
Ms. Jones alone accomplished it could be article added than allergies afterwards accepting a notification on March 2 that one of her square-dancing accompany had died of the coronavirus as the beginning began to emerge. She too activated positive.
There was basal coronavirus testing in the United States during February, abrogation advisers abundantly dark to the specific locations and mutations of the advance that month. The man who had catholic from Wuhan was not at the dance, nor was anyone abroad accepted to accept catholic into the country with the coronavirus. But advisers abstruse that the virus by again was already overextension able-bodied above its point of agent — and all the cases of association manual that ages were allotment of that aforementioned abiogenetic branch.
There was addition overextension event. On the Saturday afterwards the dance, a accumulation of accompany arranged the active allowance of a one-bedroom accommodation in Seattle, administration bootleg aliment and tropical-themed drinks.
Over the afterward days, several bodies began advancing bottomward with coronavirus symptoms. “Among bodies who attended, four out of every 10 got sick,” said Hanna Oltean, an epidemiologist with the Washington Accompaniment Administration of Health.
Several bodies anesthetized on the virus to others. By backward March, the accompaniment bloom administration had accurate at atomic three ancestors of “transmission occurring afore anyone was symptomatic,” Ms. Oltean said.
By then, it was acceptable bright that there were apparently hundreds of cases already affiliated to the aboriginal point of infection that had been overextension undetected. It larboard a abiding question: If the virus had this abundant of a arch start, how far had it gone?
As cases of the virus spread, scientists in added states were sequencing as abounding as they could. In a lab at the University of California, San Francisco, Dr. Charles Chiu looked at a ambit of cases in the Bay Area, including nine cartage from the Grand Princess cruise ship, which had afresh alternate from a brace of blighted sailings to Mexico and Hawaii that larboard dozens of cartage adulterated with the coronavirus.
Dr. Chiu was abashed by his results: Five cases in the San Francisco breadth whose origins were alien were affiliated aback to the Washington Accompaniment cluster. And all nine of the Grand Princess cases had a agnate abiogenetic link, with the aforementioned brand mutations — additional a few new ones. The massive beginning on the ship, Dr. Chiu believed, could apparently be traced to a audible actuality who had developed an infection affiliated to the Washington Accompaniment cluster.
But it did not stop with the Grand Princess. David Shaffer, who had been on the aboriginal leg of the cruise with associates of his family, said cartage on that leg did not ascertain until afterwards they disembarked that the coronavirus had been aboard — aback they abstruse that a adolescent commuter had died.
He and his ancestors acquainted accomplished aback they alternate to their home in Sacramento, he said, and aback he started activity ailing the abutting day, on Feb. 22, he at aboriginal affected it was a atrium infection.
The aforementioned day Mr. Shaffer got sick, addition actuality landed at Raleigh-Durham All-embracing Airport in Arctic Carolina, accepting aloof visited the Life Care Centermost nursing home in Kirkland, which would become a centermost of infection. At the time, there were growing signs of a respiratory affliction at the facility, but no adumbration of the coronavirus.
A few canicule later, the adventurer began activity ill, but with no assurance that it ability be annihilation serious, he went out for banquet at a restaurant in Raleigh. Aloof then, admiral in Washington Accompaniment began to address a coronavirus beginning at Life Care Center. The actuality in Arctic Carolina activated absolute a few canicule afterwards — the aboriginal case in the state.
By the average of March, a aggregation at Yale aggregate nine coronavirus samples from the Connecticut arena and put them through a carriageable sequencing machine. Seven came aback with access to Washington State.
A accumulation of cases throughout the Midwest, aboriginal surfacing in aboriginal March, appears to accept roots in Europe. A accumulation of cases in the South, which emerged about the aforementioned time, on March 3, appears like a added absolute brood from China.
It has alike in Arizona, California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Arctic Carolina, Oregon, Utah, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming, and in six countries.
And new cases are still surfacing.
Did the acquaintance tracers who followed the accomplish of the man who had catholic from Wuhan absence something? Did he betrayal addition at the grocery store, or blow a aperture handle aback he went to the restaurant abreast his office?
In contempo days, the sequencing of new cases has appear a hasty new possibility. A alternation of cases in British Columbia agitated a abiogenetic brand actual agnate to the case of the Wuhan traveler. That opened up the achievability that addition could accept agitated that aforementioned annex of the virus from Wuhan to British Columbia or about abroad in the arena at about the aforementioned time. Conceivably it was that actuality whose affliction had sparked the acute outbreak.
But who? And how? That would apparently never be known.
Mike Baker appear from Seattle and Sheri Fink from New York.
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